Release date: 2013/12/28

     After two years of historic lows, shipping market back in good range. In the third quarter of this year China shipping boom index yoy 15 points to 101.7 points, in a micro cycle interval, bottoming out as the global trade, the international container, dry bulk and tanker transportation market under the pull of demand growth up, since the third quarter of 2011 early recovery of appeared again. 
     Bottoming out global trade has now dawn 
     Since 2013, the steady growth of the global economy continues, it will seaborne trade bottoming out. According to the WTO has predicted that global trade will grow by 2.5% in 2013. As the U.S. economy to maintain moderate growth, the euro zone economy bottoming picks up, Mr Abe economic policies to help Japan out of the shadow of economic growth, the global economy has bottomed out, into a slow recovery channel. 
     In September of 2013, China import and export value of $356.083 billion, up 7.7% from a year earlier. The export $185.645 billion, fell 0.3% year on year; Imported 170.438 billion us dollars, up 7.4%, the trade surplus of $15.207 billion. 
     Throughout the third quarter, the international container transportation market demand rising steadily, freight rate rose slightly, including Europe, the Mediterranean route for two consecutive months increase volatility. But due to the cargo growth slowing, capacity are dropping, the ship launching, liner multiple factors influence of the difference of corporate strategy, appear differentiation of the line segment. In September, the freight rate gradually callback, the Pacific held steady is the basic of the line, dry time stabilization of the line. 
     International dry bulk market rebounded sharply since August, September 25, BDI index after the break 2000 mark, have a strong, close to its highest level since 2010, a strong, including capesize ship market leads the overall market, panamax ship market and handy-size market gradually began to support the afternoon. Rally once until the end of the quarter, the market overall was rising sharply, from the point of BDI index months mean, 2013 international dry bulk shipping market as a whole is in recovery, and in the third quarter rose sharply, quarter late fall. 

     Over the same period, the international oil tanker transportation market in the global oil demand is strong, the Middle East geopolitical push up international oil prices, crude oil and refined oil demand are picked up by sea, the market rate N type general trend. 
     Downside risks of not dissolve 
     In the past two years, the global shipping industry to a historic low. In the third quarter of last year, China shipping boom index fell to 78 points, about sixty percent of the shipping companies in large losses. In the third quarter of this year after shipping boom index back to business for the first time interval, the shipping industry trend of the stable recovery can be sustained? 
     Along with the economic needs of the world's major economies slow recovery, emerging markets was not all plain sailing. The IMF's world economic outlook, "the latest estimates that in 2013, emerging markets and economic growth in developed countries were 4.55% and 1.17% respectively, look from the absolute level of emerging market growth slowed to the lowest level since 2009. Especially the major developing countries such as India, Brazil and other expansion pace is slowing, import demand, weak. In September this year, China's exports fell by about 8% of the bric countries, to the association of south-east Asian nations (asean) export growth fell by about 21%, of South Korea's exports fell 23%. 
     Steadily in main cargo transport market to adjust the recovery, for years of excess capacity situation has not been fundamentally improved. Lloyd's intelligence, according to data from the September the asia-europe run active accounts for more than 13000 teu container ship capacity size ratio, has soared to 40% this year from 29% in the same period last year, the airline capacity average size from January of 2012 to 2012 teu grew up to the present 9500 teu. Under 7500 teus at the same time, the routes of the small and medium capacity fell 4%, only 15% of the total capacity routes. In addition, a group of more than 18000 teus 3 e big MAC has started to deliveries. 
     In the past two years, relying on strong economic strength, a group of large ship owners and carriers in the capital market, order the ultra panamax ship frequently. With thousands of cases of large container ship was put into operation in succession, more than cargo growth can't keep up with rhythm, Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean route liner shipping market after a relatively high in August this year to regain losses. On October 11, the Shanghai shipping exchange released by China's exports to Europe, the Mediterranean route freight index was 1263.13 points, 1270.79 points, down 9.4% and 9.4% respectively than the previous period. 11, after the goods shipment is insufficient and the influence of the fourth quarter of the traditional off-season come, intensified market weakness, shipping vessels shipping space utilization in only seven to eighty percent on average. 
     Main routes of the world's capacity to control and maintain space utilization, to guarantee the credibility of routes and achieve operational sustainability, or can be downside risks of uncertainty. 
     The foundation is the key to the future market 
     Although the future main cargo transport market volatility will gradually narrowed, but laying solid foundation recovery still is a key to the future direction of the market. 
     According to the analysis, with the effect delivery before Christmas day, the fourth quarter of the global container HaiYunLiang aggregate into downward interval, influenced by shipments in the New Year, at the end of the quarter, the traffic will be a wave of small peak, year-on-year growth is on the mend. However, as the ship deliveries, imbalance between supply and demand will have weighed on freight rates in the fourth quarter of the container market. Although shipping company announced plans to increase in the price of October and November, but the rate of market pressure may be difficult to achieve expected to rise, and the future will continue to lower, later the first peak, is expected to rebound. 
     Expert thinks, proposed the P3 alliance will make shipping services more commoditized, would greatly reduce the alliance members to provide differentiated and personalized liner service ability, and lead to companies in the competitive of the same kind of container ship route service, finally only hit rate this red line, big price war. 
     With different container transportation market, the main dry bulk market will continue to appear in the fourth quarter slightly increase. Report predicts that iron ore seaborne trade growth will fall; Coal shipping trade with the coming of winter increased, grain demand picks up, and will become the fourth quarter of international dry bulk shipping trade is an important driving force. Major airlines freight rates will still be up power support, but later, the main reason lies in the iron ore seaborne trade will be limited, but does not rule out major miners in order to eliminate the supply pressure by means of market manipulation, which pushed up the freight. Grain demand and coal demand in China, is expected in the fourth quarter will be the basis of freight consolidation is relatively strong, BDI index rise further space is not large, the average will be stable at around 1500. 
     According to the report, the tanker transportation market by PMI index rose the world's major economies and the northern hemisphere winter heating oil demand growth, the influence of international oil consumption will increase. At the same time, due to the recent changes in the Middle East and oil prices rose faster, and fostering short-term crude oil import demand. In the fourth quarter of crude oil transport demand is a small increase in the third quarter of 2013, production and marketing into balance; Refined oil transport demand will rebound. Refinery capacity recovery and falling inventories will lead to increased oil transportation demand. And a tanker vessel growth will continue to slow, basic maintain capacity scale in the third quarter. BDTI average at around $630 in the fourth quarter is expected to average BCTI near 610, the overall level is slightly lower than in 2012. 
     Based on the analysis of the three major market movements, the basis of shipping industry in a steady recovery is still not strong, the downside risk of has not been eliminated, strive to solve the excess capacity of prominent contradictions, reorganization of the market and reduce operating costs, restore and stabilize the market rate, promote the competitiveness of the shipping, it will be a top priority of the fourth quarter of this year and the next two years.